Hey folks, this is the 53rd episode of the real estate brothers. Welcome folks. In this episode, we’re gonna be talking all about rising interest rates, J Powell and rumors of the fed. And Dean’s gonna start us off with some June statistics, but before we do that, why don’t you guys take some time and take some questions and comments and we’ll, I’ll try and formulate it in our head.
We’ll try, incorporate it into this month’s episode. Okay, so that is that me? That’s you. Okay. Welcome everybody. Thank you for tuning in as always. What is this number? 53 episode number. That’s pretty cool. I think it shows our dedication to our craft. We’re not doing anything else other than doing this freaking thing every month. We should be in person soon.
Is that right? So as you guys know, I’m a real estate investor and realtor in Hawaii can catch me on my YouTube website real estate of Hawaii, or my website, real estate of Hawaii dot. But yeah. Before we jumped into the statistics, I wanted to share a couple things, summer activities here in Hawaii.
So one event that I tried, our venue was beyond Monet. That’s over in the convention center. I, the reason why I posted, I wanna talk about this one is that I wasn’t very cool. I guess you could say, but I wasn’t impressed very much and maybe I’m not an impressionist appreciator or an art appreciator, but it just was, the lack of, what I was able to see there, basically there was like two large rooms.
One room had a lot of. Words that you could read about Monique’s history, which that part was interesting, but keep in mind, I brought my 10 and my eight year old child and they went, we went on a playdate. So that was one room that after you read all the history, then you step into another room that had, it was like a big, I know it is just an empty hall that had four sides of Screens and the projectors just shot on all four sides.
Like just moving art, which is interesting too, but that was pretty much the end of it. And I think we paid, along the lines of maybe $30. So it went by really quickly. So just underneath that, I have this search for Snoopy the peanuts adventure at the experience. We didn’t do this, but the funny thing is after the beyond, Monnet.
event. We went over to AWA shopping center and to have the kids play on this playground right next to the target. And we saw this search for Snoopy, a popup adventure. So I, we didn’t go to, we didn’t have time, but I then went online, came to find out it’s the, it’s pretty much the same price as the BI money event.
And again, I haven’t gone through it yet, but it touted like eight different things. Areas to go and do, tour and adventure. So it depends like I’m sure if you’re a Mon fan or appreciated the beyond money must would probably be awesome. But, I didn’t find it very. Good bang for your buck.
And the one interesting thing too, was that someone was working, there was a basketball tournament down below at the convention center. So I was talking to the lady working that event. And she has mentioned to me that she was gonna go to beyond Mon and said, oh, And I asked her, there was a beyond van go event that happened probably six months ago.
So I had asked her, oh, what she thought about that one? She said she hadn’t been to that one. She missed it. But the interesting comment she made was that the beyond van go event had a lot, a really good turnout. And from my understanding, it was very similar with the two different areas.
And she said, surprisingly, she finds that this beyond Monet venue, isn’t getting as nearly as much attraction or pool as the beyond van goal came. So that made me think that people like that. Paid the money for the Vango event. Weren’t impressed enough to come back to the beyond money when they found out it was a very similar concept instead. Anyway, did you go to the one in Japan where there’s like
the immersive experience near you? Yes. So that one there’s two of those in Tokyo and we did go to that and oh yeah, maybe I’m comparing it to that, but. When blue this one’s out of water, because this one, I’m just looking at a picture, but it looks like they just like. Fired up four or four projectors and they just changed the USB file.
It’s not, I, there are transitions a little bit. It’s a little bit more fancy than that to your point. But yeah, in a nutshell versus the one in Japan, which is, comparing apples in oranges, but the technology that they had in the one in is, the kids, they would get a picture.
They would. Draw a sea creature, and then they would scan that sea creature in the computer, and then that would pop up and be animated. And. Going all over the walls in the virtual ocean and it would be moving. And that’s just one right there. There’s and maybe we were expecting that, but anyway, we are typical Hawaii, man.
If anybody can help me find a CPA that knows about passive losses and land conservation essence, please help me because apparently we are 20 years behind everybody on the mainland. And in terms of 3d, immersive art, we. A hundred years behind Japan. Anyway, getting off topic, let’s jump into the statistics for June.
And I’ve been tracking this as well as some other statistics because everyone is talking about the doom and glue and how there’s the correction and interest rates are making everything. Tank. And that may be the case on the stock market side, but glad to announce that it’s not quite happening in Hawaii. We are seeing a little bit of, I dunno, if you wanna call it softness, but as you can see, it’s not really evident in some of these numbers I’ll point out to you where it might be, but starting off with the single family meeting, single family home prices, we’re actually at 1 million we’re actually up 12% from the same time last year.
On the townhouse condo side, we actually. Broken all time, new record at five 30, 4,000. And that’s up 16% from last year where we do see maybe a potential. I dunno if you wanna call it softening, but it is on the Kohl sales, 357 for single family. That’s a 21% decrease from last year and 626 Kohl sales for townhouse condos.
That’s a 14% decrease. Last year, if you wanna say, that’s, if that’s a sign, the market, we’re still at 10 and 11% market, which is still a strong seller’s market by definition. So what I would like to do is like how we always do is dig a little bit further to see how things are going.
So closed sales. We see again, we’re just looking at the trend lines that, over the last. In 10 years, this is the closed sale trend. And if you look at it still looks relatively healthy, it’s not like it’s like a big drop, for new listings. This is where I think on the mainland.
Certain parts of the mainland they’re saying is softening up because sales are going down, listings are coming up. And then, inventory overall is on the rise, which is causing the prices then to soften. But as you can see here, new listings, we have, we, it’s not really going up. It’s actually going down.
And so what that does. Month supply of inventory. It’s not bumping that up as much as it is in certain parts of the United States. So if we look at, for June, we still have a single family, 1.6 months of inventory and condos, one not much different at 1.7, if you look at this historical chart, we were still really busy all time low still.
Until the inventory starts bumping up, I think that’s. We will actually get to see more softening of the prices I think. And, one thing different we have is our new construction rates. Aren’t nearly as high as they are at the mainland, being on the island as we are. So looking at days on market too, as a lagging indicator for a buyers or sellers market.
And we have, as you can see. As you mentioned earlier, it’s well under two weeks, so we’re still by definition in a seller’s market. And again, all of these statistics are lagging indicators, but these are six days old, right? As of June, interest rates again we talked about in the past.
I pulled this number yesterday, but the 30 year fixed is at 5.65. And I know I hear a lot of people freaking out and right, because everyone’s been spoiled for the last 10, 12 years. And what it does is yeah. When you, everyone is used to that 3% interest rate, it’s going. Almost double and now your buying power goes down.
So everyone has to adjust to that. Yeah. Okay. So now going onto some interesting news on the west side of wahoo, this is regarding the Makaha valley area. Once in a while, I get these calls . A lot of people like new construction and they’re looking for new construction popping up.
We always talk about Kaka ACO. We talk about Co Ridge having a whole ley, but there’s one small subdivision out in Makaha valley by cottage, by Stanford, Cara cottages at Mount Olu. It’s a gated community. The single family homes up to about 1.2 million and it is just out there in the middle of that valley and just stands out compared to everything else.
And part of the reason why is because we had this, a Canadian company that had bought the land in Makaha valley many years ago. And they were supposed to develop residential vacation homes, vacation rentals and golf courses. A few golf courses, I think two golf courses popped up over there.
Only one has survived, but besides that, there’s not much out there. In fact, one of the golf courses was supposed to be a tiger woods golf course. And so without that development coming through fruition that cottages of mono oil just stood out there. Oddly placed, but that developer actually went bankrupt in 2021, the one in Canada.
And so they, the bankruptcy courts have sold the property to K group, which is a Korean company. And hopefully they’re gonna start development in terms of getting that Makaha valley, developed in, having. Some neighbors and something to match the development of the cottages at MLU.
So that’s it depends how you look at some, some people think that’s great news. Other people are like, keep the, keep Hawaii, but is that a safe place out there? Is it. I just ask the question, everybody’s thinking. Yeah, no, and that’s a great question. And as a realtor, by, by definition, they, we have to watch out for what we say because of fair housing laws.
So when oh, selling properties, that kind of thing, but no, to your point, you go down the street. And you head towards the ocean and there’s a homeless camp off to the right, right on the beach. That’s not looking too good. And overall, you think of the, once you get outta Makaha valley, you look at the.
The condition in the neighborhood, the houses are really old. And so there is something to say it was gated, right? This thing, this, the cottage at mano is gated. Yeah. And there’s a guard. Like I said, it does, it is unique in terms of once you get out of the valley how the rest of the inventory and those new neighborhoods.
This is good for the mainland guys who don’t know anything about the island. And then they just, they don’t care being on the west side. Funny that you bring that up because that’s who’s the ones that are spotting this one and asking me about it. So yeah, that’s exactly the ones. And then, so then there’s a little bit of education too, and saying, okay come down and let’s go drive through the neighborhood. Let’s take a drive out. and let me know what you think. And so it is to your point that I am getting those inquiries about cottages. That’s why, when I see these articles like, oh, good to talk about because it’s all part of educating our friends, our clients, about our neighborhoods, where are the gated communities?
You get this one there’s. There’s actually a if you could see this picture out. Oh, lower Ridge. Oh, just in general. Yeah. There’s not many gay communities. Yeah. There, oh, there’s a townhouse in Milani Maka. There’s condo complexes that are easier to gate, right?
Yeah. But no houses. Yeah. You know what I mean? Yeah. Oh, there, there are ones I. Shoot. I think in Windward side, there are too. And in the Kahala side, there are a few, I think they’re small though. Yeah. But yeah. That’s why I like to talk about these kind of, articles too. Yeah. As always, I like to talk about the scam the month.
So now we’re talking about celebrity cryptocurrency scams and. Basically what these scammers are doing is they’re building the scam initially. Then the criminals will boost the scam with fake endorsements. So they will get, I guess they’ll impersonate public figures who previously promoted cryptocurrency to make the endorsements seem legitimate.
And then the endorsements are meant to influence you to invest in the scam. And if you fall further you’ll not see any return on your investment, obviously. So keep being aware of those. Always do you know, never trust a get rich quick scheme, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
They’re the crypto currency scams are usually caught, and shut down quickly, but you never know. And remember that celebrities do get paid to endorse the. Cryptocurrency. You do your research and your due diligence in mighty people, although we are social creatures and we just follow, like lemmings one person that’s popular, right.
Happens since high. So that’s basically what this is. Yeah. So in this scenario, that celebrity isn’t truly promoting this scam, it’s just try to mimic that. Yeah. So the way this works is there’s like these discord channels. And then they’re usually put on by some kind of influencer, like a YouTuber or somebody like a podcaster that doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
But sometimes the influencer is like some actual tech founder that actually went full cycle with a company that’s where you gotta do due diligence, but most times it’s think, what’s that Jake Paul dude, or I don’t know who these guys are, that the one the brothers, the box. The pro boxer.
I don’t know. He, I don’t know. He’s got beach chairs like that, but he’s, there’s a lot of these like influencers, right? And so they get paid, not they’re dumb. They, I would, if I was the influencer, I would want equity, but they just get paid like a, just a quick sum of cash to shout out.
Just like all the Instagram influences out there. If you guys go to social blade.com, you can. Find all the local influencers and just pay people in certain categories where you want. It’s all paid for. It’s just a sham these days.
Like social media, waste of time. I dunno. I’ve been grumpy today. Cool, cool. No, that’s a good, very good point in terms of, you get. You very much do research, cuz there’s so many people and you think that it’s legit, they try to legitimize things. Anyway, moving on. So I have a client who is, this has happened a few times actually, where. . But right now I have a client who’s planning to sell their property.
They live 3000 miles away. They haven’t seen their property for quite a few years now it was tenanted. And again so yeah, they’re in the mainland and One thing and sorry they want me to sell their property. So one thing I asked them to consider you don’t need to, is to get what’s called a pre-marketing home inspection.
Typically in the buying process, the buyer is recommended on their own dollar to get a home inspection. And they use that as leverage, possibly to negotiate repairs. And our credits. So in the scenario that we’re in this for my clients, I had given them the option to get a pre-marketing home inspection.
And so one reason why this might be something for sellers to consider is it, it minimizes prices for the buyers as well. For the sellers in that manner, because they haven’t set it for net property for so many years. They don’t know what’s going on. A lot of times the property manager doesn’t let them know what happened.
The best thing they can do is go back to their accounting and see, oh, they had, they got billed for this. Okay. Okay. The toilet was repaired cuz or replaced. Cuz we see that in the bill, sometimes there’s a bill and there’s no detail. So the inspection helps. minimize those kinds of oopsies or like things they didn’t know about you.
And in theory it can reduce the buyer’s reason to cancel from the one inspection. So if providing, then with the buyers, with the information, if you want to at least be able to disclose things that popped up in this pre-marketing home inspection. It gives the buyers in theory, less outs because of, in things that they didn’t know, because they discovered it during their inspection, because we were able to let them know prior to getting into, to contract by right.
The buyer can opt out of the. contract based on for no reason for that matter in terms of if they’re still within that inspection period, but this just in theory mitigates the risk of them canceling on a, for a legitimate reason. It’s also in a pre-marketing home inspection is also a great marketing tool from the standpoint of being able to say to the buyers and the buyer’s agent in.
In good conscience that the seller is being upfront, honest and operating. Good in good fails in good faith without anything to hide. And it totally depends on the sellers because the sellers could take it two ways. They could go on the one side of the spectrum and be fully transparent to the point.
Oh here’s the pre-marketing home inspection report in. Take a look at it and you can see, or you could be on the opposite side of that spectrum and say, you know what, I haven’t set foot on this property. I’m gonna sell it as there are no credits, repairs, anything. So buyers now that you know, that you build in that, to your taking that to consideration in your offer, right?
So that’s theoretically you could be leaving meat on the bone though. So that’s why when you have that two ends of the spectrum, In theory, when you’re being more upfront and open you can hopefully get more for your property and pocket more. So it depends how you look at it again. Sometimes I have clients who are like, no, just as I take it.
I don’t wanna know anything. Just let them know. I don’t know anything. And that’s fine also. And again, situations where the owners haven’t seen their property in a long time is often when I. through that as a consideration for my sellers. So something for sellers to think about.
Yeah. See. So last I wanted to end with an update on the Kakaako neighborhood. So I went by today to take some clients over to the ward village. Area in the IBM building. And so I heard a few presentations. So quick update the Ali condo condominium that’s been completed already, but they still have some available studios that start at 660,000.
And there’s actually resale condos for Ali because it’s been done. I think some people are turning around and trying to sell them. Of course those are probably more. units that are, they were picked already. So the ones that are still sitting are not gonna be as, in good I guess part of the building, also co Ola is another complex similar to Ali, a little bit close, closer to the ocean and those studios start at seven 30.
They also have one bedroom at, in the nine hundreds and the two bedrooms at 1.2. So this one’s not gonna be actually done till I think. The fall quarter Q3 of this year. So those are for sale. A few units left. If you have, if you add to know anything, then P me, I have the pricing and the available units, but maybe for next month I’m gonna talk about the next building, that word villages or Howard Hughes is putting up and that complex is called Kalay.
And I’ll report next month. But lane, we talked about not Uru being on the ocean and having nothing to no views. So Kalia is one of those buildings that’s gonna be built right across from Aliana Boulevard. And it’s gonna have a view of the ocean in theory. They’re not building them similar to Naru where everyone has.
Ocean view, they’re doing it a little bit differently where I believe it’s, you’re either looking ever or diamond head. And then you have not a pick a peek, a Butte blue view, but you don’t get a straight shot view of the ocean so that everyone has some kind of view, but not the most gorgeous view, more information on KA coming soon. Those, when bedrooms start at 1.2. Just to let you focus on the downs, that could be for a while, but I’ll probably have a better, more comprehensive report with pictures and pricings. For next month, what’s the three bedroom, three bath costs. Because all these other ones are under like 1200 square feet.
Yeah. So, I think there’s gonna be like, I think that the highest would be like 5.3 fi in the 5 million. Oh, that’s probably this one, this three it’s at the corner unit three bedroom, three bath, 1457 square feet. So yeah, so Kale’s gonna be 330 units. 165 of those units are gonna be unrestricted, meaning, you can be an investor.
You don’t have to be living here. The remainder you have to be. It has to be owner occupied. Yeah. So what’s. oh, okay. So this Alii is not as good as Lua then. Yeah. Ali’s further towards the mountain. The unit sizes are a little bit smaller, the unit sizes. And then yeah, this interesting thing is Alii.
I have heard from a few buyers who stepped into the unit after cuz you’re buying off blueprints back then. And they’re like, oh my gosh, like this. This is so small. I can’t even believe how the engineers even, or the architectures they should be fired for coming. And man, you knew you should have known it’s gonna be tiny.
And, the thing is there weren’t any models to look at. Yeah. And I did see one of the Ali studios and it wasn’t that it seemed actually really big because of the way they made everything efficient and they had a Murphy bed and, but it reminded me of Murphy bed. You gotta live in the studios.
Yeah. Yes. If you’re, it reminded me of some of the Airbnbs, I stayed in Tokyo. If you are moving from, say Milani Maka from the four bedroom, three bath single family home, 2000 square feet, and you’re trying to. Squeeze yourself into a 350 square foot studio. Yeah. You’re gonna, you’re gonna be in a big bunch of shock.
Yeah. That’s the downgrade living with mom and dad. You get your living room and all the common air between the laundry room and you know that you get smaller quarters. You could, yeah, seriously. So I don’t know. It just depends how you look at it. Cuz the theory is that, you go back to your, so these micro apartment theories in these urban areas is you go up and you go to sleep there, but you’re gonna go down to the amenities that they have as well as the public amenities in terms of the restaurants and the shopping and the parks.
And know the interesting thing about transitioning back to Kalia is they’re gonna have these bungalows, it’s almost giant. I dunno like kitchens and the area. And one of the bongos has a pool where you can rent out. This area fits maybe 50 people and you have to pay a fee, but it’s almost like a miniature version of middle lane town association where you can rent out the big party room for your 300.
party, graduation, that kind of thing. It’ll be interesting, but yeah, Kala’s gonna be right on the, on Boulevard. So that should be an interesting one. I can, I’ll talk about that one and we can do even comparisons with the older inventory that has the video. Yeah. So that’s all I have for my section.
We’ll. If you guys wanna learn more about investing on the mainland, you guys can check out my podcast and we’ll pass it, cash flow, and the website simple pass it, cash flow.com, but let’s get to it here as this is a little chart that I put together where everybody’s complaining about the interest rates going up, but Hey, the interest rates go up, they cool off inflation and that’s just what the fed does.
And that’s, it’s kinda like your parents who told you couldn’t do something you wanted to do. That’s what the Fed is doing to make sure that we don’t go to hyper inflation and some con historical context of how long these times of cranking rates up, what did it go up? 70 per basis points last time.
It will probably go up half percent three quarter percent again next time, but you’re the last time it’s, it’s gone. 1.4 years, one and a half years. She lived 0.2 years from 2005 to 2008. The most recent one, 2017 to 2020, just before the pandemic was 2.6 years. So I would say, people say the interest rates are gonna go back down. I don’t think so, man. I think we’re looking at least another year of interest rates cranking up,
Best and worst places to raise a family. People like these for some strange injuries and, but Honolulu and Pearl city were like number one there. Oh, wow. Yeah.
Sanel is like a real estate guru staying away from Bitcoin. And if you guys are interested, I did a video called Crypto winter, which is upon us. I think it was live. Tomorrow on my YouTube channel, you guys can just Google it. Rich uncle is the YouTube channel. We try to keep things fun and light up there, but I’m not a huge fan of investing for sustainable returns, that type of stuff.
I do think it’s long term, so don’t get me wrong, but I just don’t. I took all my money, all that blocked by and all that type of stuff. Cuz there’s all this did. All the brokerages. I don’t know if that’s the right word to use, but of all the people on the exchanges there’s some turmoil happening on the staking side , but John Burns real estate consulting reports that demand is shifting from owning to renting with prices still pretty high.
There’s a bit of a. Home appreciation nationwide hit 20% in March of 2022. Making the largest jump in three decades. Mortgage payments went up about $600 with the latest increase in rents. If you live in Hawaii, that’s probably four times. Probably like two grand mortgage payments, right? Like most people used to pay three grand now it’s five GS right. Every month. Yep. Yep. Yep. In terms of new, the comparable new loan, right at the new lease, right?
Yeah, exactly. Should have done it yesterday. Yeah. Cause we all say, but I saw a picture the other day of some guy signing a noon loan. And I was like, really now’s the time to do it, but I guess, the rates are gonna go up more than likely in the next year. So I guess better now than later, but it’s a little too late to the party in a way.
Oh, I told you too. And that other slide that I showed, at, five, 6%, we’re still relatively low in the grand scheme of historical interest rates. You. Yeah. So exactly. So we’ve just been spoiled, when it, and it’s just shocking to us emotionally, as well as financially, when you look at how far down our buying part went, compared to when I was at 3% or below 3%, it’s very unnerving and it’s scary. It’s scary. . Yeah, but are you ready? That’s why I like your condos. Like your condos are, so I don’t wanna be offensive again. I always get that disclaimer, like one ha or 600 grand to 1.5 million, that’s all kind of semi middle class household house is like, to me, the people coming from the mainland are not middle class.
They’re all buying much larger or they can afford all charter, larger houses. Or more expensive houses. That’s 600 square feet here in Hawaii, apparently, but, yeah, like I, it’s binary. I think it’s like the low end folks, which is, most people in Hawaii are struggling and it’s the high end that can afford it.
And they are doing pretty well, all things pretty much it’s the elimination of the middle class, right? Yeah. The cation of the haves and the haves nots. Yeah. What do you wanna be? Dean? Do you wanna be, you can’t be middle class. You can’t stay in the middle and you have to go to one side, I wanna be on, I wanna be happy and I want my kids to be happy.
Yeah. Yeah. They’re not gonna be happy unless you pay $30 to see Snoopy and well, and not even bed an eye on it point us to the apartment market, nothing sign of slowing down rents. Road. Here are some apartment markets that are doing pretty well: Miami, New York, Fort LDO, Florida, Tempe, Orlando, San Diego, west Palm Nashville, Seattle, New York. Top smallest increases generally came in the Midwest and Northeast.
All the growth is in the Sunbelt. We keep talking about it again and again, and multi-housing news echoes that the rust belt and. Northeast, more people were leaving California, the rust belt and the Northeast heading to the Sunbelt and the Rocky mountain regions. This article they’re talking about out-of-state rental applications.
So people are moving out of their state. I know people are always moving out of Hawaii and the more affluent people are always moving back. Where are people relocating? Where are the magnets? Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and Tennessee. And this is what we’re talking about. The nation’s best renter retention rates for conventional apartments are occurring in the class B and the C units because of class B and C folks.
The middle class are not economically mobile and they cannot afford to buy houses, especially today. And this trend will fully continue on. Oh, here’s some places where they’re moving Class C are the apartments that aren’t raising rents as much as the high end, because the high end aren’t there, they have more money to spend, especially these days coming outta the pandemic.
Which is a little perplexing too, because you would think that maybe the people who are on the fringe or the bees move down to the seas, but right. So you just don’t have the ability to pay much more. Seems this one has some pertinent to Hawaii folks. But this is all the way in New York. This is a sort of anti rent control bill that got passed. Just one in a line of many I’m sure there’ll be more rent control, but I always look to you, you’re drawing us out with the paper. Oh my bet. All right. We’re always Looking at states like California and New York, where you are seeing this kind of precedent centering type of laws being passed because Hawaii is very progressive in terms of laws and equality.
In terms of financial equality, changes in my opinion, One time, Hawaii that comes up for discussion. Once in a while at the legislature rent control, it’s very scary. We don’t have rent control here. We do not, but it comes, it comes up every once in a while, every session. I dunno if it’s every session, but it becomes a topic of discussion because of the high cost of living there.
Affordability problem. Did you hear that Hawaii’s minimum wages can get raised, I don’t know, 10 years from now that was that a big thing or I just saw that article. Yeah. It’s see, I don’t even initially right on the fed side I think Obama was going, he was successful.
And I don’t know. I feel that I understand what they’re trying to do, but. I have a feeling it’s gonna backfire from the standpoint of, when we hear big, like on the federal side with that, I feel like now we saw McDonald’s a lot of those kiosks popping up in the cashiers.
Yeah. At the Safeways, we see the self checkout lines, more popping up, even Costco. So I feel like it might have a backward effect. you’re gonna actually displace the human resource. Yeah. I’ve never seen so many parking attendants. The guys who take your ticket.
There’s none of that. On the main night, everything is Automated, you don’t have some random person just staying in that little booth all day, making X dollars an hour. You don’t have any of that. I think El Elon Musk was watching an interview with him and he was saying that, with all of this technology, AI and everything, it’s gonna make a lot of this menial labor.
Positions that were handled in previously by, from, by humans, handled by technology and AI to the point where you know, people that don’t ha these, I, I guess for lack of better unskilled labor type positions are, might go away and who need to have, like a socialistic society where. Some people, the homeless, won’t be homeless, the jobless population will grow because there won’t be any jobs for a certain type of demographic or amount of education.
There, there won’t be any jobs for a big portion of the population. So the governments are gonna have to just pretty much just give them money and because they, there’s no way they’re gonna find a job. Go on Reddit and read the anti work thread. It’s funny. It’s made to be funny, but it is super sad because like people, you have to get into so much student debt to get a halfway decent job to make 50 cheese a year.
It’s ridiculous. And then one of there’s funny things and it’s okay, Make me do this bullshit application for a job that takes me like an hour. And then I have to upload all my job experience every single time. And then you’re not gonna tell me what the stupid pay is. That’s absurd, but that’s just how it is.
I don’t know. It just, yeah, like it, it is getting so separated. This is why I just wanna go to my gated community where when everybody gets so pissed off and everybody just fights in the streets, I will be away. And maybe, I know you’re not allowed to have guns, but maybe I’ll get a cannon or like a lightsaber and protect myself.
But yeah, like it just, yeah, it feels, feel sorry for a lot of folks out there. It’s just the system. Yeah. But yeah, I agree like the, raising the minimum wage is gonna get just passed down to the lower guys somehow. Yeah. Yeah. But let’s just keep focus on keeping the status quo for now.
But yeah, CNBC business, their opinion. It’s time to prepare for a recession. I’m not, I don’t really see this happening too much. We’re already, we’ve already had a negative 1.5% GDP. Last quarter and our recession is officially two quarters of that in a row. But like when the previous quarters passed were like 20% plus gains then you’re due for one of these once in a while.
You’re still net positive. yeah. You’re still net positive on one year moving average, these articles they need to sell, they need to sell doom and gloom. But I do think that the war in Ukraine is going longer, or the lockdowns in China, cuz that’s gonna make even more supply chain shocks. those are just two of them.
What they call the black Swan events that could potentially happen. That probably won’t, that is there’s always black swans events that could happen, but I don’t know. I don’t know. It’s why you buy stuff that makes sense in cash flows, as opposed to gambling on things. And don’t.
Any commentary there, Dean, I just was gonna say with that said, how, what, how are you getting ready for this? Or how are you? I think in a discussion I had with you, you folks, in, in a different setting, it was like, part of me, is getting caught up with all of this, these Domain gloom stories and taking my foot off of the gas in terms of.
My investing because I’m at where I’m at now. I’m still in the acquisition phase. So in theory, all things being the same, I should be pedaling to the metal and buying cash, flowing properties, but seeing this kind of thing in the media, in terms of the recession coming up and it’s maybe I’ll keep that cash for a little while.
And although I’m losing. Up, 8% keeping it in cash. If, and when there’s a big correction, then, I can put, be buying whatever real estate stocks. Yeah. Crypto at a discount and at the bottom waiting for everything to go up. So it’s what are you, how are you taking the, all of these kinds of articles since you’re reading them, just buy stuff that cash flows now.
But that whole thing that you said makes a lot of sense, but in practice it’s impossible. Do you remember 2008, right? That was your big moment. could you have picked the bottom and picked the right point? No, you probably are. So you could even do it in 2011, 12, 13, 14, 50.
Like you, you are not able to pick the bottom, just like again, 20, 20. The bottom fell out. But did you have the coho to go back in and summer of 20, 20 or 2021? No it’s impossible to catch, go in is, which is part of the practicality of that type of strategy. And I don’t claim that I’m that smart or have the clogs that do it either when it drops.
So I’m just gonna dollar cost average, and just, yeah, I was about to say the exact same term. So look what happened in 2020, like the bottom things dropped, right? I don’t have any of that type of stuff. That’s why I do real estate. But if you are already in you and you held onto real estate, you got that tremendous climb up.
There was no way you could have jumped into it. Hit that wave. If you are sitting on the sidelines or on shore, you have to be in the water in there holding onto the asset. Yeah. And by the time it’s all happening. You’re like oh no. Oh no. yeah. If you have enough man, like by all power to you, you can do what you want.
But most of the people saying this do Gloo and they’re gonna hold onto cash. Are. Guys are under half a million million dollars net worth. And to me, you can’t sit there with that. That’s just not enough on my own, for me. Yeah. But if you wanna do something, that’s what life, that’s what the cashier life insurance is.
It’s a way of pun. If that’s a really conservative way you wanna play it. That’s a good point too, in terms of getting like it’s you’re not going to. Kill it with the returns, but you’re, you have something better than sitting in, in cash in the bank, and then you have so many options in terms of, accessing the cash for, yeah.
For what investments in, and not applying that. Yeah. I’ll say on a recorded line, I will guarantee that people cannot time the bottle. Oh, I got a chopstick-like wrapper and I put it in front of my daughter. And trying to test her like reflexes just to troll her.
She cannot catch that thing. Just like how people cannot catch. They cannot, like, whenever this bottom comes in, you cannot catch it. It’s just not. You scared me when you said that, I’ll say this on, on, on the record. I was like, oh, what? Oh, should I have to press the pause or what? Okay. So why am I saying outlandish things?
My second thing that I will bet on is I don’t think rents ever go down for longer than one to three years. I’m willing to take that bet. Why? With that said too, saying the stock market in the long run always goes up real estate. Oh, I don’t know. I don’t know. In Japan, that’s not the case.
And people say we could be like that, but rents never go down. I don’t know. And gravity works but. Anyway, We had some of these other things. We hit our time limit here. And we are looking to change the show and how, where do you guys wanna talk about? So if you guys have any feedback, please reach out to myself or Dean and we’ll see you guys next time.